Media interviews are not given under oath, but when the prime minister told CBC’s Peter Mansbridge that people should ignore speculation about the prospect of a spring election, I was inclined to believe him.

Now, I’m not so sure.

Certainly, the temptation to break the October fixed election date must be nearly irresistible. Stephen Harper’s pitch to Canadians is that he is best positioned to provide them with physical and economic security, at a time when threats to both are on the rise.

His forthright comments last week that international jihadists have declared war on Canada and its allies, and the country must be willing to confront the challenge, will resonate with many voters. The brutal killings in Paris seem to have exhausted any tolerance for euphemism or nuance on the security issue. Just as right-wing parties across Europe have received a bump in popularity because of the attacks, so can Canadian Conservatives expect to see some electoral momentum.

But it is the tumbling oil price, along with the economic uncertainty it heralds, that has persuaded me that the Great Opportunist will risk the charge of rank hypocrisy and break his own election law again.

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